Composite indicators for measuring and analysing the dynamics of business conditions for the development of the retail market

Abstract

This article proposes some analytical and methodological solutions to study the dynamics of retail business development, based on the results of business tendencies surveys. The following business conditions indicators were developed and tested: Retail Market Indicator (RMI) and Retail Business Potential Indicator (RBPI). The proposed indicators are aimed at quickly identifying current tendencies in the retail business, which, together with the quantitative parameters of the market, increase the scale of representation of the actual and expected phase of economic development of trade and the associated consumer market. The technique was tested to measure the business conditions of Russian organizations in the retail business, over the period 2005–2018. In this study, it was shown that RMI and RBPI are aggregated characteristics of business conditions that can warn about turning points of the business cycle. In addition, based on the decomposition of their dynamics, a tracer of cyclical profiles of indicators, which increases the visualization of industry tendencies, was built and the development of entrepreneurship at different stages of the business cycle was analysed. The results of this study show that the proposed methodology and statistical tools can give a significant contribution to the improvement of the existing techniques on industrial processes’ monitoring.

Keywords

Small entrepreneurship business conditions business sentiment retail market composite indicators cycle tracer business conditions surveys

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