Abstract
We are proposing to upgrade Wendel's probabilistic concept of assessment of ship subdivision that has been applied in IMO's probabilistic regulatory framework, including the recent harmonized one. Unlike Wendel's concept where the focus is on the ship, here the emphasis is placed on passenger survival. Index A is replaced by a new index reflecting passenger risk. Damage scenarios that lead to ship loss may still contribute to safety, according to the relation between time-to-sink and evacuation time. A calculation procedure is proposed that exploits recent research. Demonstration of the methodology through preliminary application to a modern ferry is included.
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