Small area estimation of crop production using spatial models

Abstract

Agricultural surveys for estimation of crop productions in India are designed to obtain reliable estimates at high geographical levels (districts). Due to shift in emphasis of planning from a macro to micro level, there is a strong need to estimate the agricultural production at small area levels such as tehsils (middle administrative unit), blocks (low administrative unit), and even villages. The main objective of this study is to show the potential of spatial models based on geo-statistical techniques of variogram and kriging for estimation of crop production at small area level (low administrative level) through generation of production surface. To achieve this objective, Indian Remote Sensing IRS-1D satellite data for 1997–1998 for Rohtak district of Haryana state have been used. The results of the study indicate that application of spatial models for estimation of production of major crops at small administrative area level has great potential. The predicted yield/production of wheat in the district/tehsil turns out to be comparable to the estimated production of wheat crop through large-scale survey data. The proposed technique can be further explored and refined to provide reliable estimates of crop production at small area levels.