A probability-exponential method of converting Z-numbers and its systematic applications in multi-attribute decision making

Abstract

Z-numbers contain fuzzy restrictions, credibility measures, and probability distributions to effectively represent uncertain information. Converting Z-numbers to fuzzy numbers facilitates extensive applications (such as multi-attribute decision-making (MADM)), thus becoming valuable for research purposes. Regarding Z-number conversions, the original method never considers the association probability, while probabilistic strategies offer better informatization. Recently, a probability-driven conversion starts with a linear transformation of the centroid difference between the fuzzy restriction and probabilistic distribution. However, it has the invalidation weakness of edge information due to underlying non-normalization. To improve this probability-linear conversion, a Z-number conversion is proposed by using underlying probability-exponential descriptions, and this new method is further applied to MADM. At first, the current probability-linear conversion is analyzed based on the initial non-probabilistic conversion, and its intrinsic weakness and correctional improvement are revealed. Then, the novel probability-exponential conversion resorts to an exponential characterization of centroid difference between the restriction and distribution, and it gains information enrichment due to underlying normalization. The refined method preserves the inherent characteristics of Z-numbers more effectively, facilitating their application in subsequent engineering practices. This is especially pertinent in decision-making systems based on expert input and initial value problems. The proposed method for converting Z-numbers aims to minimize information loss in transitions between Z-numbers and classical fuzzy numbers. This approach will be further explored in future research. Furthermore, the probability-exponential conversion induces an ExpTODIM algorithm for MADM, called PE-ExpTODIM. Three Z-number conversions (i.e., the non-probabilistic, probability-linear, and probability-exponential types) and three decision algorithms (i.e., ExpTODIM, EDAS, MOORA) are combined to establish a 3 × 3 framework of Z-number-driven MADM. Finally, the systematical 9 algorithms are applied to the problem of site selection of carbon storage. They are validated by criss-cross contrast analyses and statistical significance tests. Thus, PE-ExpTODIM exhibits the desired optimization. The last technology of statistical testing is original, ingenious, and valuable for MADM.