Pseudo grey metabolic Markov model and its application in urban rainfall prediction

Abstract

Purpose:

The purpose of this paper is to propose a pseudo-grey metabolic grey Markov model to deal with the prediction issue in which the original sequences are oscillation sequences.

Design/methodology/approach:

First, the original sequences were processed with the accelerated advection transformation and the weighted mean generation transformation to make them smoother. Then, the mean GM (1, 1) model was applied to the multi-step prediction of the pre-processed data sequences. Finally, with the help of the optimal partitioning method, the pseudo-grey metabolic Markov model was used to correct the prediction results and determine the final prediction values.

Findings:

The results demonstrate that the accuracy of this model is significantly higher than that of the traditional grey Markov model, which further verifies the rationality of the proposed model. Therefore, scientific and reasonable prediction of urban rainfall is of great theoretical significance and application value for the government and decision-making departments to formulate drought prevention and disaster mitigation measures.

Originality/value:

The model in this paper not only provides new ideas for the data preprocessing problem of the grey Markov model, but also solves the problem of errors due to individual subjectivity in state interval division. It provides a novel idea for the development of grey prediction models. The rationality and validity of the model are illustrated by taking the Zhengzhou City of Henan Province as examples.