Bayesian assessment of utility tunnel risk based on information sharing mechanism

Abstract

The main body of the utility tunnel is all kinds of pipelines, so the normal operation of the pipelines is very important for the operation benefit of the comprehensive utility tunnel; meanwhile, identifying the potential risks of the pipelines in time can reduce the losses caused by the uncertain risks to the comprehensive utility tunnel. This paper uses the Stackelberg game model to analyze the risk information sharing among utility tunnel institutions which concludes in utility tunnel company and pipeline company, which is helpful for understanding the decision-making process in the game and its equilibrium results can guide utility tunnel company’s decision-making behavior in seeking utility tunnel risk treatment. On this basis, this paper analyzes the potential disaster risk factors in the operation process of utility tunnel, and constructs the risk early warning model of integrated pipeline corridor based on Bayesian network. The results show that the potential disaster risk during the operation of utility tunnel is evaluated, and the overall risk probability level, the key path and key risk factors of the occurrence of disaster risk events are obtained.