Abstract

It is impossible to describe all these ideas is a short review – for this, you must read the book. What I will try to do in this review is to describe some of these ideas – namely, those that are most related to fuzzy techniques.
It is well known that a significant part of our knowledge is not exact: it is usually described by using imprecise (“fuzzy”) words from natural language, like “small", This is how we describe how we drive a car, this is how skilled doctors explain what treatment to prescribe for a patient, etc. We all know this very well – because the need to take this imprecise knowledge into account was Zadeh’s main motivation for inventing fuzzy techniques.
Fuzzy techniques has helped us design many successful systems. Some of these systems are used for control, they automatically generate the appropriate control values; other systems generate recommendations – recommendations which are also formulated in terms of (imprecise) words from natural language.
In fuzzy system, we do take this into account when describing the expert’s rules: we determine the expert’s membership function; if there are several experts, we take into account the difference between their opinions – e.g., by using interval-valued (or, more generally, type-2) membership functions. This is all we need for fuzzy-based control systems.
Another important idea – described in Chapter 9 – is that it is important for the same person to take into account different possible interpretations of the same word. This is how the thought process of the superforecasters – people who are very good in forecasting events – works: they come up with an idea, then they switch to a possible opponent’s viewpoint, trying to find weak points in this idea, then switch again, etc. It would be great to be able to simulate this efficient process.
Many psychologists view such bias as irrational, as a limitation of human reasoning – but it actually makes sense. Changing our view of the world is a process requiring a lot of efforts and revisions. So, even if our model of the world turns out to be slightly inadequate, our resulting actions not perfectly optimal, we can tolerate this sub-optimality until the resulting loss of efficiency is smaller than the effort needed to redo our reasoning system. So maybe something like this can be built into our machine learning algorithms – to make them more efficient?
But psychologists found out that words are not all. Our thoughts often start as images – static or dynamic. When we communicate our thoughts, our ideas, we use images, we use gestures – and this helps. Even historically, images were used to communicate way before written language appeared: e.g., the first known map was designed in Spain about 13,600 years ago, predating written language.
According to the book, such “spatial thinking" is the foundation of abstract thinking (Chapter 3) – this is actually one of the main ideas of the book. As shown in Chapter 5, images and gestures help us think, they help us clarify our thoughts, they help us better communicate our thoughts (this part is clear, gestures of a good lecturer help!). Even uncertainty is described by gestures – e.g., when we want to emphasize that something is approximately true, more or less true, we use waving hand gestures.
According to Chapter 4, even for success in STEM, success requiring processing exact numerical models, it turns out that spatial reasoning, ability to think in terms of images, process images, communicate images is extremely important. For example, according to Chapter 9, students who drew visual explanation of what they learned did much better on the following test than students who only used words or numbers.
How can we describe this ambiguity, this fuzziness? How can we describe the creative process as first forming a fuzzy picture and then “defuzzifying” it? Is it similar to fuzzification and defuzzification in fuzzy control and decision making? These are interesting questions to study.
How can we combine images with maps? This is an important question.
What conclusion can we make about representing a single notion like “small"? In the first approximation, in fuzzy techniques, this notion can be described by a usual (type-1) membership function that assigns, to each possible value x of the corresponding quantity, the degree μ (x) to which the value x has the corresponding property (e.g., the degree to which the value x is small). Of course, just like the expert cannot describe his/her knowledge by an exact value x, the same expert cannot describe his/her degree of confidence by a single number μ (x): this degree can also be viewed as a fuzzy number, by assigning, to each possible value d of this degree, the degree of confidence μ2 (x, d) that d is an appropriate degree of the statement “x is small”. The corresponding function – known as type-2 fuzzy set – is a function of two variables, exactly what we can represent as an image.
But, of course, the expert cannot produce an exact degree μ2 (x, d) either – so a seemingly natural idea is to consider this degree as a fuzzy number too, i.e., to consider, for each possible value d2 of this degree, the extent μ2 (x, d, d2) to which d2 is appropriate. Such type-3 fuzzy numbers have indeed been theoretically proposed, but so far, in contrast to type-2 fuzzy sets, they have not led to practical applications – so maybe the reason is that only type-2 fuzzy numbers can be represented as an image and thus, only type-2 numbers are intuitive?
What if instead of a single notion like “small”, we have many different statements, with different degrees of confidence. If we describe each degree of confidence by a single number from the interval [0, 1] – as in traditional fuzzy logic – we can place all these degrees on a straight line. If we take into account the user’s uncertainty in assigning a number and allow the use to assign an interval of possible numbers instead, we will get two parameters to describe each statement – so all these statements can be placed into a planar image. If we try to make a more adequate description and use three or more parameters, we no longer have a clear image. Maybe this is the reason why in many applications, interval-valued fuzzy techniques work well, while several seemingly natural generalizations are not as efficient?
What is we have many different notions? Each notion needs to be characterized by the corresponding membership function. Then, according to the above idea, we should have a 2-parametric family of such membership functions – then each notion will be describable as a point on a plane, so the whole set of notions will be easily describable as an image. This probably explains the empirical success of symmetric triangular membership functions which are indeed characterized by two parameters: center and width, and of a similar 2-parametric family of Gaussian membership functions.
And if we allow dynamic images, which are described by functions of three variables I (x, y, t) (t is time), then we can use 3-parametric families – e.g., the family of all trapezoid membership functions?
