On the development of econometric modeling languages: MODLER and its first twenty-five years 1

Abstract

MODLER is one of a small group of integrated econometric software packages developed during the past twenty-five years. These packages are often referred to as econometric modeling languages, in order to convey the idea that they provide a suitable environment in which to construct and use such models. Inasmuch as econometric models consist of equations, it is natural to think of their syntactic form as language-like. The development of MODLER began in 1969–1970. It was converted to the microcomputer starting in 1981 and became the basis for the first microcomputer-based econometric forecasting service. Microcomputer-based models embedded in MODLER by the end of 1985 included the 600+ equation Wharton Mark VII Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, as well as smaller models in earlier years. Since then, other models of 500+ simultaneous equations, including one of approximately 1000 equations, have been built and used with the software, plus over 2000 smaller models, created by users worldwide. The paper briefly describes representative MODLER applications, as well as the software's design and development through the end of 1994. Other packages broadly similar to MODLER include TROLL, XSIM, and EPS, among packages introduced prior to 1980, and AREMOS, among packages introduced since 1986.