Abstract
In this paper, we describe a strategy for generating or updating county level population projections, using current age-sex-race-specific migration estimates derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census current population estimates. Our strategy focuses on projecting local area patterns of net migration and is illustrated using a cohort-component projection model for counties in Pennsylvania. First, we discuss the advantages of 5-year age-sex-race-specific migration rates based on the retrospective residence question asked in the 1980 Census. Second, we discuss the use of middecade 1985 population estimates as a benchmark for generating updated 1980–1985 migration rates by age-sex-race for each Pennsylvania county. Finally, we describe a migration typology, based on changes between 1975–1980 and 1980–1985 in county total net migration patterns, which is used to generate future population projections to the year 2000.
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