Quantifying and Describing the Natural History and Costs of Alzheimer’s Disease and Effects of Hypothetical Interventions

Anders Wimo, Ron Handels, Bengt Winblad, Christopher M. Black, Gunilla Johansson, Stina Salomonsson, Maria Eriksdotter, Rezaul K. Khandker

[Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease 75(3), 2020, 891-902. DOI 10.3233/JAD-191055] https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad191055

Because of a data extraction error, a correction is needed.

Instead of reporting 10-20-30-40 years results, figures representing 11-21-31-41 years were reported. There are no errors in the database or in the model and no impact on conclusions.

Correct tables are as below:

Table 1

Main outcomes in the simulated cohort of 100,000 MCI-AD persons after 40 years

	10 years	20 years	30 years	40 years
Cumulative cases of dementia	87,752	95,433	95,952	95,969
Cumulative deaths	13,391	52,501	93,908	99,973
Cumulative deaths with dementia	10,275	48,647	89,892	95,942
Cumulative deaths with AD-MCI	3,116	3,854	4,016	4,030
Mean PYs/person	9.50	16.41	18.83	18.97
Mean Pys/person with dementia	5.67	12.24	14.63	14.78
Mean Pys/person AD-MCI (without dementia)	3.84	4.17	4.20	4.20
Mean Pys/person in Mild AD	2.84	4.42	4.93	4.97
Mean Pys/person in Moderate AD	2.34	5.90	7.23	7.31
Mean PYs/person in Severe AD	0.49	1.92	2.47	2.50

Table 2

Cumulative cohort cost distribution (state related cumulative costs, SEK) and QALY distribution (state related cumulative) (both NPVs) during the simulated period (1 US$ = 8.56 SEK)

Severity state	5 years	10 years	20 years	30 years	40 years
Costs (million SEK)
AD-MCI	55,3188	70,918	76,421	76,760	76,771
Mild	31,6329	63,333	94,956	104,029	104,650
Moderate	15,7287	65,716	156,962	187,754	189,440
Severe	1,6823	16,990	62,898	78,900	79,514
Total costs	104,3627	216,957	391,238	447,443	450,375
Cost/PY AD-dementia (SEK)	249,0394	257,756	257,221	253,310	252,843
QALYs
AD-MCI	225,166	283,161	301,214	302,122	302,146
Mild	85,415	163,457	230,727	246,489	247,384
Moderate	20,692	80,788	174,066	199,476	200,606
Severe	1,118	10,330	33,325	39,630	39,819
Total QALYs	332,391	537,736	739,332	787,716	789,956

Table 4: NNT 10 years: 11, NNT 20 years 28, NNTs 30 and 40 years are correct.