Predicting traffic crash severity using hybrid of balanced bagging classification and light gradient boosting machine

Abstract

Accident severity prediction is a hot topic of research aimed at ensuring road safety as well as taking precautionary measures for anticipated future road crashes. In the past decades, both classical statistical methods and machine learning algorithms have been used to predict traffic crash severity. However, most of these models suffer from several drawbacks including low accuracy, and lack of interpretability for people. To address these issues, this paper proposed a hybrid of Balanced Bagging Classification (BBC) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) to improve the accuracy of crash severity prediction and eliminate the issues of bias and variance. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is one of the pioneer studies which explores the application of BBC-LGBM to predict traffic crash severity. On the accident dataset of Great Britain (UK) from 2013 to 2019, the proposed model has demonstrated better performance when compared with other models such as Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), Support vector machines (SVM), and Random Forest (RF). More specifically, the proposed model managed to achieve better performance among all metrics for the testing dataset (accuracy $=$ 77.7%, precision $=$ 75%, recall $=$ 73%, F1-Score $=$ 68%). Moreover, permutation importance is used to interpret the results and analyze the importance of each factor influencing crash severity. The accuracy-enhanced model is significant to several stakeholders including drivers for early alarm and government departments, insurance companies, and even hospitals for the services concerned about human lives and property damage in road crashes.