Abstract
Politicians, planners and social scientists have an increasing need for tools clarifying the spatial distribution of relevant features. Special interest is in predicting changes in a what-if analysis: what would happen if we change some features in a specific way. To predict future developments requires a statistical model with inherent modelling uncertainty. In this paper we investigate Bayesian models which on the one hand are able to represent complex relations between geo-referenced variables and on the other hand estimate the inherent uncertainty in predictions. For solution the models require Markov-Chain Monte Carlo techniques.
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