SEER: A Divergent Methodology Applied to Forecasting the Future Roles of the Systems Analyst

Abstract

Predicting evolutionary changes is perilous at best. Rather than choose a recognized method for convergence of ideas such as Delphi, we chose to develop a technique that emphasizes differences of opinion. We call this method SEER, which stands for Scenario Exploration, Elaboration, and Review. In this paper we examine four scenarios that might influence major changes in the roles of information systems analysts as we approach the twenty-first century. By elaborating on the four scenarios (overburdening the analyst, overbuilding systems, the myth of control, and the inflexible organization) it became apparent that the roles of the analyst will change. Although we explain how we constantly differ from one another, we conclude by identifying four underlying themes we have in common and by recognizing an ordered structure for these differences.