Artificial Intelligence: Perspectives and Predictions

Abstract

In the first part of this paper a brief elementary introduction is given to Artificial Intelligence (AI) which is intended for a general audience. In the second part, predictions are made about future developments in each of what are arguably the major subfields of AI. These predictions evolved over a timespan of about two years. Initial versions of them drawn from the literature and elsewhere, were distributed to a number of experts working in the various subfields, revised following their criticisms and suggestions, distributed again, and so on for a number of iterations. Not surprisingly, no clear concensus emerged and thus we are solely responsible for the final form they take. The second part also briefly takes up some broad questions concerning the future economic significance of these developments and the likely social changes they will bring about.