Ornithological Knowledge for Preliminary Risk Assessment of Avian Influenza (H5N1): The Implementation of the European Model in Croatia

Abstract

The lack of epidemiological knowledge when planning the approach to preventing possible future outbreaks of avian influenza may lead to uncontrolled spreading of HPAI H5N1 virus and, consequently, danger to the poultry industry and human health and threats to the survival of endangered wild birds. The implementation of a model developed for the rapid assessment of ornithological data relevant to the spreading of avian influenza in the EU countries resulted in the identification of 23 Higher Risk Species and 17 Bridge Species for the territory of Croatia. It also identified a number of wetland areas, where Higher Risk Species come together during migration and wintering, as potential AI introduction and outbreak sites. The EU model was adapted to suit the Croatian circumstances. The migratory flyways of Higher Risk Species were analysed using data on birds ringed outside Croatia and found on the territory of Croatia between 1910 and 1992. These results form the ornithological part for the risk assessment of possible future outbreaks both at the national level and internationally, in neighbouring countries. It may also be used for AI research under the global European model. Data on poultry density, type of poultry husbandry, poultry trade and movement are needed. We propose the establishment of a database on the commercial movements of poultry and poultry products under the Early Warning System.