Abstract
This study developed a mode choice model that can be used to describe how transit users select emerging competitive transit options. Specifically, the mode choice model considers the selection of traditional fixed-route transit systems, flexible-route systems in which vehicles are shared but routes are flexible to prevailing demands, and individual transit systems that provide door-to-door and demand-responsive service (e.g., taxis, Uber, or Lyft). A stated preference survey was performed: survey participants were provided a specific scenario and were asked to select the most attractive transit option. Each scenario was presented with the following attributes: walking time required, waiting time (including variability), in-vehicle travel time (including variability), monetary cost, and availability of GPS tracking services. Various statistical modeling frameworks were considered and applied to these survey data to describe the mode choice decision-making process. The results revealed that some individuals always selected the same mode, regardless of the parameters, perhaps because of familiarity or personal preference. However, the models also revealed that monetary cost, expected in-vehicle waiting time, expected waiting time, and walking time were statistically significant predictors of the type of flexible transit option selected.
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