Estimating Latent Cycling Trips in Montreal,Canada

Abstract

About 1.8% of the residents of the Island of Montreal, in Quebec, Canada, ride a bicycle at least once a day during the fall season. These people make nearly 76,990 daily trips, 2.0% of the total number of commuter trips. Of these cyclists, 65% are men, although men represent only 48.1% of residents, and nearly 63.8% are employed, although the employed represent only 45.2% of the island's population. Data from a large-scale travel survey were used to confirm the influence of various factors on bike use. The study showed that men were 1.99 times more likely to make a trip by bike than were women, individuals who lived in a nonmotorized household were 2.35 times more likely to take a trip by bike than were those who lived in motorized households, people who commuted on a sunny day were 1.46 times more likely to travel by bike, and people who lived more than 9.3 mi (15 km) from the downtown area were 0.29 times less likely to travel by bike compared with people who lived nearer. The study also proposed a methodology for estimating latent bicycle trips, that is, the number of car trips that could be made by bike. When a criterion of travel range based on age cohorts and genders was applied, it appeared that about 50.7% of car trips would be made by bike. When more restrictive criteria were used (consideration of trip chains, shopping), it appeared that 18.2% of car trips would be made by bike.