Developing an Empirical and Risk-Based Revenue Forecasting Model for NAV CANADA

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of aviation activity is necessary for NAV CANADA, because the act that created the company stipulates that revenues must equal cost commitments related to the provision of air navigation services. Accurate forecasting of revenue is an important early step in determining the cost commitments that can be met in upcoming fiscal years. Traditional econometric forecasting techniques are of a long-term nature and do not consider the seasonality of traffic, nor do they provide the required detail at the level of the individual month. For these and other reasons, empirical forecasting methods were developed as the primary forecasting approach for the company. This paper describes the selection and development of the empirical model, which is based on the Holt–Winters multiplicative method, for the air traffic that overflies Canadian airspace on routes between North America and Europe. A second part of the modeling process is the application of risk analysis not only to replace current scenario-based methods but also to improve and augment them. The methodology will then be applied to the two other markets, Asia and the Far East and Alaska, with eventual expansion to Canadian air traffic, though they are not discussed in this paper.