Developments in Energy use for Transport in 27 European Union Countries through 2030

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of transport policies and the European Union (EU) climate and energy package on transport energy use and related emissions in the 27 EU countries. The paper is based on the EU-cofunded project iTREN-2030, which developed consistent energy and transport scenarios through 2030. The model suite applied in iTREN-2030 comprises POLES (prospective outlook on long-term energy systems), a simulation model for development of long-term (2050) energy supply-and-demand scenarios; TREMOVE; ASTRA (assesment of transport strategies); and TRANS-TOOLS. A reference scenario and an integrated scenario were created. The reference scenario includes only policies approved by mid-2008 and does not assume relevant shocks. The global economic downturn that started in 2008 is not fully reflected. The integrated scenario considers policies likely to be implemented until 2025. On the transport side, this scenario refers to regulation of carbon dioxide emission limits for vehicles. On the energy side, the EU climate and energy package is implemented through a carbon value to reduce European greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 20% by 2020 and a support scheme to achieve a 20% share of renewable sources in final demand by then. The integrated scenario considers the global economic downturn. The scenario results in a reduction in final energy demand and higher shares of alternative transport fuels like biofuels, gas, and electricity compared with the reference. As a consequence, GHG emissions by transport will decline 12% by 2030 compared with 2005; in the reference scenario in the same period, emissions are expected to grow 17%.