Models of Mode Choice and Mobility Tool Ownership beyond 2008 Fuel Prices

Abstract

A recent project addressed how travelers would react to fuel prices rising above the high levels that were reached in mid 2008. Study participants were recruited during phone interviews, in the course of which trips made on a specified day were recorded. On the basis of one of those trips and the respondents’ possession of mobility tools, stated preference (SP) experiments were constructed. The first part consisted of a mode choice situation under modified price (and travel time) settings (tactical decisions). The second part focused on long-term (strategic) choices between the current and an alternative fleet, including a redistribution of yearly mileage. From the SP data, multinomial logit models for mode and fleet choice were estimated. The mode choice models were estimated by using income- and distance-dependent nonlinear utility functions and separately for the various trip purposes (as was the practice in earlier Swiss studies on similar topics) and controlled for all relevant trip characteristics. The models for mobility tool ownership, which were formulated by using a new approach, aimed to yield trade-offs between the various attributes of the offered fleets and to forecast the distribution of annual transit passes under modified settings. The findings suggest that inertia is present in both mode choice and mobility tool ownership. Elasticities do not change much from previous studies, where more-conservative price increases were assumed. Transit pass ownership is expected to grow only when increasing fuel prices coincide with stable public transport fares.