Development of an Empirically Based Area-Type Model

Abstract

Area type is often used in traditional four-step travel demand models as a predictive variable. Most often it is a factor in mode choice, but it is also commonly used in trip generation as well. Yet a reliable, fore-castable, and measurable definition of area type is generally not documented in most travel demand models. In fact, there is little literature on the subject of predicting area type in the context of travel demand models. This can be troublesome when models are applied to long-range forecasts where significant changes in population and employment result in changes in the general character of an area. With Delphi methods, geographic information system analysis, and discriminant analysis, this study documents the development of an empirically based area-type model in the Tampa Bay region. Because in many ways Tampa Bay's urban form is typical of many cities in the United States, the results should be readily transferable to other urban areas.