Composite Exhaust Emissions Rates: Sensitivity to Vehicle Population and Mileage Accrual Assumptions

Abstract

In the California Air Resources Board’s newest model of mobile-source emissions, EMFAC 2002, vehicle population and mileage accrual data have been revised such that regional vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are calculated from vehicle population and accrual data [rather than directly, using metropolitan planning organization (MPO) estimates]. Calculated VMT is forced to match the MPO VMT estimate by scaling the mileage accrual rates and altering vehicle population data. Vehicle population and mileage accrual data also determine how VMT is allocated across the vehicle model years present in the vehicle fleet; thus, modification of these data also changes the fraction of the VMT associated with each model year in the vehicle fleet. Composite emissions rates were estimated based on various vehicle population and mileage accrual data. Small perturbations in age distributions and accrual data have a larger-than-expected impact on the composite emissions rates for light-duty automobiles. For example, total organic gas emissions varied by nearly a factor of 3 between the lowest and highest estimated emissions rates, and either emissions rate could justifiably be used in an inventory. Recommendations for VMT and accrual data in subsequent release of EMFAC 2002 are provided, giving preference to the methods used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.