Abstract
An investment study sponsored by the New York City Economic Development Corporation with Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 funds evaluated strategies for improving the movement of freight by rail to an 11-county subregion (including New York City) of the New York and northern New Jersey metropolitan area located east of the Hudson River. The major achievements of the process were the use of choice modeling techniques to understand the decision making of shippers and, in combination with other data sources, forecasting the demand for freight infrastructure investments. The methodologies described are applicable to the study of freight transportation investment strategies in many settings. The key finding of the analysis is that a rail freight tunnel would increase rail mode share relative to other alternatives and the so-called No Build case. The subregion east of the Hudson contains two-thirds of the region’s population, but it is at a significant disadvantage in the movement of freight relative to the subregion west of the Hudson. Rail accounts for only 2.8 percent of all the subregion’s shipments, compared to 15 percent within the subregion west of the Hudson. Two limited rail crossings of the Hudson River provide access to New York City and the rest of the east subregion. These conditions affect the level of truck traffic and air pollution within the subregion, the subregion’s overall economic competitiveness, and the viability of its port facilities. To address these concerns, four families of alternatives that could improve cross-harbor rail freight service were analyzed. Discussed is how the market demand for these alternatives was analyzed by linking six distinct methodologies and data sets: (a) regional economic forecasts, (b) commodity flow data, (c) a modal diversion model, (d) regional port forecasts, (e) a regional travel demand forecasting model, and (f) user benefit calculation models.
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