Transportation Project Selection Through Robustness Analysis for Developing Countries

Abstract

The decision-making process within infrastructure projects in the public domain comes under severe scrutiny—from the public and the media—particularly in the initial planning stages. This process becomes progressively complicated as the degree of uncertainty embedded in the outcome of the project increases. Such complications can become more critical in developing countries, where funding and resources are scarce. One way to address this dilemma is to use robustness analysis, a comparatively new technique that has not been applied much in the past. Robustness analysis is a technique used in infrastructure planning that emphasizes the need, under condition of high uncertainty, to take early decisions in a time-phased sequence, so as to preserve many future options that currently appear attractive. The concepts of robustness analysis are outlined, and its use in public project selection is explained through two transportation-related examples. The results of this exercise indicate that robustness analysis is easy to comprehend, is relatively simple to use, and provides the flexibility needed in long-range planning to undertake decision making under uncertainty.