Evaluating Role of Distance and Location in Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting by Using American Travel Survey

Abstract

The focus of this initial study is on the role of distance and location in long-distance passenger travel and specifically how these affect mode choice. Distinguishing between short-and long-haul travel is one method for selecting a mode choice model structure. According to the literature, distances that define short-haul travel should exhibit competition among the modes, whereas long-haul travel distances will exhibit dominance of a single mode, generally air travel. In the literature, some values have been suggested [400 km (250 mi), 800 km (500 mi), 992 km (620 mi), etc.]. This study considers the mode shares for five states to determine (a) if these values emerge to distinguish between competitive and noncompetitive mode share distance ranges and (b) if competitive and noncompetitive mode share distance ranges are consistent across different states. The American Travel Survey (ATS), collected in 1995 by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, is used.

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