Abstract
Recent advances in predicting flood magnitude and frequency at streamgauging stations are illustrated using stream flow data from Nebraska. Prediction methods were based on statistical techniques referred to as L-moments and the region of influence method (ROI). L-moments are less sensitive to extremely high or low floods than current procedures and may provide more stable estimates of flood frequency. The ROI method for predicting flood frequency does not depend on fixed hydrologic regions but uses information from all appropriate gauges in the state to form a unique region and frequency estimate for each site. Estimates of the 100-year flood using current procedures showed statistically significant differences from estimates made using a generalized extreme value distribution with L-moments. Differences were due to the treatment of extreme flood events and illustrate the robust character of L-moments. L-moments were less sensitive to extreme floods as expected. Creating regions using the ROI method was found to be sensitive to the selection of basin attributes for assembling sites, but was not sensitive to the number of gauges initially used to create a region, nor the criterion used to eliminate a gauge from a potential region. Statistical tests revealed insignificant differences between ROI estimates of the 100-year flood when compared with estimates using current procedures. The similarity in estimates is attributed to current “filtering” procedures used that reduce the impact of extreme events. The ROI method is viewed as a more objective method of achieving the same result.
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