Evaluation of Long-Term Pavement Performance Data Using HDM-III Probabilistic Failure-Time Models for Crack Initiation in Bituminous Pavements

Abstract

Cracking is perhaps the most important distress in bituminous pavements. It plays a key role in modeling bituminous pavement performance in the World Bank’s Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model Version III (HDM-III) with the belief that a cracked pavement is susceptible to moisture ingress, which accelerates pavement deterioration. Strategic Highway Research Program Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) data were analyzed by using the probabilistic failure-time crack initiation models previously developed for use in HDM-III. On the basis of that analysis, it is concluded that the HDM-III models do not accurately capture the climatic factors that play a role in linear cracking initiation typically observed in North America. When considering only fatigue-related cracking, HDM-III models could be successfully fit to the data, but concerns related to the shape parameter call into question their general applicability. It is concluded that although some aspects of this analysis suggest that HDM-III models adequately model fatigue-related crack initiation in LTPP pavement sections, overall the results are inconclusive and a more in-depth analysis needs to be conducted.