Patterns of Aggregate Grade-Retention Rates

Abstract

Aggregate data on grade-retention rates in 1st through 12th grades, from 12 American states for the year 1979–80, and 11 for 1985–86, were examined for across-grade patterns. The results were as follows: (a) The pattern of the rate magnitude distribution in the first six grades strongly suggests a negative growth exponential function as the target population of potential retainees is ‘‘depleted” across the grades; (b) the retention rate magnitudes show a pronounced tendency to peak at the beginning of each level of schooling (elementary, middle or junior high, high school); (c) shifts in the magnitude of the peaks following the change from a junior high to a middle school configuration support the preceding finding; and (d) both logically and empirically, a rather simple mathematical model fits the patterns quite well.