Optimal Sampling for the Population Coverage Survey of the New Italian Register Based Census

Abstract

For the first time in 2018 the Italian Institute of Statistics (Istat) implemented the annual Permanent Population Census which relies on the Population Base Register (PBR) and the Population Coverage Survey (PCS). This article provides a general overview of the PCS sampling design, which makes use of the PBR to correct population counts with the extended dual system estimator (Nirel and Glickman 2009). The sample allocation, proven optimal under a set of precision constraints, is based on preliminary estimates of individual probabilities of over-coverage and under-coverage. It defines the expected sample size in terms of individuals, and it oversamples the sub-populations subject to the risk of under/over coverage. Finally, the article introduces a sample selection method, which to the greatest extent possible satisfies the planned allocation of persons in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. Under acceptable assumptions, the article also shows that the sampling strategy enhances the precision of the estimates.

Keywords

Population census balanced area sample capture-recapture estimator administrative data sample allocation

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