46 subjects were presented with 25 pairs of grades representing students' performance over the last two semesters. One group was asked to predict the grade for the following semester and another group was asked to predict the grade which occurred preceding the last two semesters. A linear model applied to the data indicated that both groups of subjects weighted the temporally contiguous grade more heavily than the other grade.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
FischhoffB.The effect of temporal setting on likelihood estimates. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1976, 15, 180–194.
2.
MatthewsL.SandersW.Effects of causal and noncausal sequences of information on subjective prediction. Psychological Reports, 1984, 54, 211–215.
SlovicP.LichtensteinS.Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1974, 11, 172–194.