In coalition formation under conditions of uncertainty, the probability of coalition success is 0 < P < 1. A Coalition Expected Utility Model is proposed where coalitions with the highest expected utility are predicted to form. One experiment was designed to test the expectancy model given four of Caplow's triads. The observed frequencies in the four triads supported the expectancy model against Caplow's Minimum Resource Theory (χ2, P < .001). The expectancy model showed a higher predictive validity than three other deterministic theories of coalition formation.
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