20 male is made two sets of 200 binary predictions in a standard noncontingent probability learning paradigm. Half the Ss saw a series with π = .6 first and then a series with π = .8; the order was reversed for the other half. Results indicated more overshooting on the .6 series when it was preceded by the .8 series and a suggestion of less overshooting on the .8 when it was preceded by the 6. An extinction explanation is rejected in favor of a multiple-strategy hypothesis, in which S is presumed to use a strategy of guessing the more common event in approximate proportion to its degree of success.
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