How People Predict Three Balls Fall into Three Cells

Abstract

Ss completed a questionnaire, requiring them to predict how three balls fall into three cells as the result of a random process. They predicted that three balls fall into one cell, and that one ball falls into each of three cells, more often than would actually occur as the result of a random process. They predicted that two balls fall into one cell and the third falls into a second cell less often than would occur by chance.