This postscript conveys lessons learned from the 5 studies by Zagar and colleagues which examined risks for later commission of violence and homicide among abused, violent, and homicidal youth and adults. This set of studies is the first longitudinal data on risks for extreme violence from infancy to adulthood. The 5 articles following these studies consist of a developmental context for risks, historical comparisons of risks for delinquency, analyses of the costs and benefits of actuarial testing and treatment, and a general discussion of the legal issues related to application of testing and treatments. A review of the state of research on homicide acknowledges the many contributors to the literature and ideas underlying this overall work. Then, a set of 12 “fallacies” about violence that prevent or inhibit adoption of realistic, empirically sound approaches to the reduction of violence in society are addressed.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AchenbachT. M.EdelbrockG. (2001) Child Behavior Checklist manual, Burlington, VT: University of Vermont, Research Center for Children, Youth, and Families.
2.
AlexanderJ.ParsonR. V. (1973) Short-term family intensive therapy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 2, 1.95-201.
3.
AlexanderJ.SextonT. L.RobbinsM. S. (2000) The developmental status of family therapy in family psychology intervention science. In LiddleH.SantistebanD.LeavantR., & BrayJ. (Eds.), Family psychology intervention science.Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
4.
BontaJ.HarmanW. G.HannR. G.CormierR. B. (1996) The prediction of recidivism among federally sentenced offenders: a revalidation of the Statistical Information on Recidivism Scale. Canadian Journal of Criminology, 38, 61–79.
5.
BontaJ.MotiukL. L. (1985) Utilization of an interview-based classification instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 12, 333–352.
6.
BurgessE. W. (1928) Factors making for success or failure on parole. In BruceA. A.BurgessE. W.HarnoA. J., & LandescoJ. (Eds.), The workings of the indeterminate sentence law and the parole system in Illinois.Springfield, IL: State Board of Parole.
7.
BuschK. G.ZagarR. J.ArbitJ.HughesJ. R.BussellR. E. (1990) Adolescents who kill. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 46, 472–485.
8.
BuschK. G.ZagarR. J.GroveW. M.HughesJ. R.ArbitJ.BussellR. E.BartikowskiB. (2009) Looking forward in records of young adults convicted of sexual homicide, rape, or molestation as youth: risks for reoffending. Psychological Reports, 104, 155–184.
9.
ChuganiH. T. (1994) Development of regional brain glucose metabolism in relation to behavior and plasticity. In DawsonN. G.FischerK. W. (Eds.), Human behavior and the developing brain.New York: Guilford. Pp. 153–175.
10.
CohenM. A.MillerT. R.RossmanS. B. (1994) The costs and consequence of violent behavior in the U.S. In RothA. J.ReisA. (Eds.), Understanding and preventing violence.Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 4, 67–166.
11.
ConnersC. K. (2006) Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.Boston: Jones-Bartlett.
12.
DahleK. P. (2006) Strengths and limited actuarial prediction of criminal reoffense in German prison sample. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 27, 431–442.
13.
DonohueJ. J.SiegelmanP. (1998) Allocating resources among prisons and social programs in the battle against crime. Journal of Legal Studies, 27, 1–44.
14.
DrachmanD. A.ArbitJ. (1966) Memory and the hippocampal complex. Archives of Neurology, 15, 52–61.
15.
EarlsR. J. (1994) Violence and today's youth. Future of Children, 4, 4–21.
16.
ElliottD. S. (1993) Health-enhancing and health-compromising lifestyles. In MillsteinS. G.PetersenA. C., & O NightingaleE. (Eds.), Promoting the health of adolescents: new directions for the twenty-first century.New York: Oxford Univer. Press. Pp. 119–145.
17.
ElliottD. S. (1997) Blueprints for violence prevention.Boulder, CO: Univer. of Colorado Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence.
18.
ElliottD. S.HamburgB.WilliamsR.KirkR. (1998) Violence in American schools: a new perspective.New York: Cambridge Univer. Press.
19.
ElliottD. S.MihalicS. (2004) Issues in disseminating and replicating effective prevention programs. Prevention Science, 5, 47–52.
20.
FarringtonD. P. (1991) Childhood aggression and adult violence: early precursors and later life outcomes. In PeplerD. P.RubinK. H. (Eds.), The development and treatment of childhood aggression.Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Pp. 5–30.
21.
Fbi. (2006) Uniform crime reports: 1900–2006.Washington. DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
22.
FischerH.KarmanK.OboroceanuM. J. (2008) Report: American war and military operations casualties: lists and statistics.Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
23.
FlynnJ. R. (1987) Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: what IQ tests really measure. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 171–191.
24.
FlynnJ. R. (1994) The mean IQ of Americans: massive gains 1932 to 1978. Psychological Bulletin, 95, 29–51.
25.
GioiaG. A.IsquithP. K.GuyS. C. (2001) Assessment of executive function in children with neurological impairment. In SimeonssonR.RosenthalS. (Eds.), Psychological and developmental assessment.New York: Guilford Press.
26.
GivenJ. B. (1977) Society and homicide in thirteenth-century England.Stanford, CA: Stanford Univer. Press.
27.
GioiaG. A.IsquithP. K.GuyS. C.KenworthyL. (2000) Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning (BRIEF)Lutz, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources Inc.
GrannM.LångströmN. (2007) Actuarial assessment of violence risk: to weigh or not to weigh?Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 22–36.
30.
GroveW.MeehlP. (1996) Comparative efficiency of informal and formal prediction procedures: the clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293–399.
31.
HareR. D. (1993) Without conscience.New York: Guilford.
32.
HealyW.BonnerA. R. (1926) Delinquency and criminals.New York: Macmillan.
33.
HoffmanP. B.BeckJ. L. (1985) Recidivism among released federal prisoners: salient factor score and five-year follow-up. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 12, 501–507.
34.
HuckS. W.BowersN. D. (1972) Item difficulty level and sequence effect in multiple-choice achievement tests. Journal of Educational Measurement, 9, 105–111.
35.
HughesJ. R.ZagarR. J.BuschK. G.GroveW. M.ArbitJ. (2009) Looking forward in records of youth abused as children: risks for homicidal, violent, and delinquent offenses. Psychological Reports, 104, 77–101.
36.
KindlonD.ThompsonM. (2000) Raising Cain: protecting the emotional life of boys.New York: Ballantine Books.
37.
LaubJ. H.SampsonR. T. (1991) The Sutherland-Glueck debate: on the sociology of criminological knowledge. American Journal of Sociology, 96, 1402–1440.
38.
LewisD. O.YeagerC. A.BlakeP.BardB.StrenziokM. (2004) Ethics questions raised by the neuropsychiatric, neuropsychological, educational, developmental, and family characteristics of 18 juveniles awaiting execution in Texas. The Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 32, 408–429.
39.
LidzC. (1993) The accuracy of predictions of violence to others. Journal of the American Medical Association, 269, 1007–1009.
40.
LoeberR.DishionT. (1983) Early predictors of male delinquency. Psychological Bulletin, 94, 68–99.
41.
LottJ. L. (2000) More guns, less crime: understanding crime and gun control laws.Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press
42.
MillerT. R.CohenM. A.WiersemaB. (1996) Victim costs and consequences: a new look. National Institute of Justice Research Report. (NCJ-155282, Feb.) Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
43.
MoffittT. E. (1994) Adolescence-limited life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: a developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674–701.
44.
MoffittT. E.SilvaP. A. (1988) IQ and delinquency: a direct test of the differential detection hypothesis. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 3, 330–333.
45.
MonahanJ. (1981) Predicting violent behavior: an assessment of clinical techniques.Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
46.
MonahanJ. (1996) Violence prediction. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 23, 107–120.
47.
MorrisonH.GoldbergH. (2006) My life among the serial killers: inside the minds of the world's most notorious murderers.New York: HarperCollins.
48.
NeisserU. (1998) Rising curve: long-term gains in IQ and related measures.Washington, DC: American Psychological Association Press.
49.
NuffieldJ. (1982) Parole decision making in Canada: research towards decision guidelines.Ottawa, Ontario, Canada: Communication Division, Solicitor General Canada, Minister of Supply and Services, Canada.
PopeK.S.ButcherJ. N.SeelenJ. (2006) MMPJ MMPI-2, MMPI-A in court: a practical guide for expert witnesses and attorneys. (3rd ed.) Washington, DC: American Psychological Assn.
52.
QuinseyV. L.HarrisG. T.RiceM. E.CormierC. A. (1998) Violent offenders: appraising and managing risk.Washington, DC: American Psychological Assn.
53.
RameyC. T.RameyS. L. (1998) Early intervention and early experience. American Psychologist, 53, 109–120.
54.
ResslerR. K.BurgessA. W.DouglasJ. E. (1995) Sexual homicide: patterns and motives.New York: Free Press.
55.
RevelleW. (1979) Hierarchical cluster analysis and the internal structure of tests. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 13, 57–74.
56.
RosalesA. V.RosseggerA. (2008) Validation and calibration of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Switzerland. European Psychiatry, 23(Suppl. 2), 345.
57.
SellinT.WolfgangM. E. (1968) Measurement of delinquency.New York: Wiley.
58.
SepejakD. S.MenziesR. J.WebsterD. C.JensenE. A. (1983) Clinical predictions of dangerousness: two-year follow-up of 408 pretrial forensic cases. Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 11, 171–180.
59.
Spatz-WidomC. (1989) Cycle of violence. Science, 24, 160–166.
60.
Stouthamer-LoeberM.LoeberR.WeiE.FarringtonD. P.WikstromP. (2002) Risk and promotive effects in the explanation of persistent serious delinquency in boys. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 70, 111–123.
61.
U.S. NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS. (2006) Homicide rates from 1900–2004.Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
62.
U.S. SECRET SERVICE AND DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. (2002) Safe School Initiative report.Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
63.
WarrenJ. I.SmithS. C.BurnetteM. L.RogersA.FridR.BaleC.Van PattenI. (2003) Understanding risk factors for violence and criminally ill events. International Journal of haw and Psychiatry, 28, 269–289.
64.
WebsterC. D.HarrisG. T.RiceM. E.CormierC.QuinseyV. L. (1994) The violence prediction scheme. Assessing dangerousness in high risk men.Toronto, Ontario, Canada: University of Toronto Centre of Criminology.
65.
ZagarA. K.ZagarR. J.BartikowskiB.BuschK. G. (2009) Cost comparisons of raising a child from birth to 17 years among samples of abused, delinquent, violent, and homicidal youth using victimization and justice system estimates. Psychological Reports, 104, 309–338.
ZagarR. J.ArbitJ.HughesJ. R.BussellR. E.BuschK. G. (1989) Developmental and disruptive behavior disorders among delinquents. Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 28, 437–440.
68.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.GroveW. M.HughesJ. R. (2009a) Can violent (re)offense be predicted? A review of the role of the clinician and use of actuarial tests in light of new data. Psychological Reports, 104, 247–277.
69.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.GroveW. M.HughesJ. R. (2009b) Summary of studies of abused infants and children later homicidal, and homicidal, assaulting later homicidal, and sexual homicidal youth and adults. Psychological Reports, 104, 17–45.
70.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.GroveW. M.HughesJ. R.ArbitJ. (2009a) Looking forward and backward in records for risks among homicidal youth. Psychological Reports, 104, 103–127.
71.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.GroveW. M.HughesJ. R.ArbitJ. (2009b) Looking forward in records of young adults who were convicted of homicide or assault as youth: risks for reoffending. Psychological Reports, 104, 129–154.
72.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.GroveW. M.HughesJ. R.ArbitJ. (2009c) Looking forward in records of youth abused as infants: risks for homicidal, violent, and delinquent offenses. Psychological Reports, 104, 47–75.
73.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.HughesJ. R. (2009) Empirical risk factors for delinquency and best treatments: where do we go from here?Psychological Reports, 104, 279–308.
74.
ZagarR. J.BuschK. C.HughesJ. R.ArbitJ. (2009) Comparing early and late twentieth-century Boston and Chicago male juvenile offenders: what changed?Psychological Reports, 104, 185–198.
75.
ZagarR. J.IsbellS. A.BuschK. C.HughesJ. R. (2009) An empirical theory of the development of homicide within individuals. Psychological Reports, 104, 199–245.
76.
ZhangL.WelteJ. W.WieczorekW. W. (2002) The role of aggression-related alcohol expectancies in explaining the link between alcohol and violent behavior. Substance Use & Misuse, 37, 457–471.
