Abstract
People typically believe they have a lower likelihood of experiencing negative events and a greater likelihood of experiencing positive events than does the average person. This effect is greater for negative than positive events. It has been proposed that this is a by-product of a tendency for estimates of the average person's likelihood to increase with the size of the group concerned. If so, event valence should affect estimates of the average person's likelihood, but not estimates of one's own likelihood or estimates of the likelihood of a person selected at random. These predictions were tested for a single event using a student sample (N = 113). Results were not in accord with the proposal. An explanation in terms of motivational processes is offered instead.
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