Several articles describing and evaluating UCLA national business forecasts have appeared in the California Management Review. The most recent was WilliamsRobert M., “Is a Tax Cut Needed to Prevent a Recession in 1963?”IV: 2 (Winter 1962).
2.
“1965 Business Forecasts,”The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Feb. 1965.
3.
See WilliamsRobert M., “The Timing and Amplitude of Regional Business Cycles,”Proceedings of the Pacific Coast Economic Association, 1950.
4.
Although little has been written on regional business surveys, there is an extensive literature on the use of national surveys of expectations to forecast business conditions. Attention will be called to two articles on the subject: EisnerRobert, “Investment Plans and Realizations,”American Economic Review, LII:2 (May 1962), 190–203; and OkunArthur M., “The Predictive Value of Surveys of Business Intentions,”ibid., 218–225. Dr. Okun evaluates the annual U.S. Department of Commerce-SEC survey of manufacturers' sales and investment expectations for their own firms. He concludes that these surveys are useful in making national forecasts of expenditures for manufacturing plant and equipment but are not very useful in forecasting aggregate manufacturing sales.
