Best Estimate Forecasting—A Better Alternative

Kierulff H.E. Robison D.E. , “Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors,” Management Science (August, 1971), pp. 773–781.

For example, see Schellenberger Robert E. , Managerial Analysis (Homewood: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1969), pp. 325–60.

Woods Donald H. , “Improving Estimates That Involve Uncertainty,” Harvard Business Review (July/August, 1966), pp. 135–142.

Einstein Harold B. Reichers Loren , “Program Risk Evaluation,” paper presented at the Western Section Meeting of ORSA, September 19, 1969. Both authors are Senior Research Analysts, Resource Management Corporation, Santa Monica, California.

“Probabilistic Forecasting For Contractors,” op. cit.