What Does Conflict Theory Predict about America's Future?: 1993 Presidential Address

Abstract

Main points of conflict theory are summarized. Multiple dimensions of social resources each generate potential conflicts between haves and have-nots. Potential interests become effective to the degree that they are mobilized, relative to the mobilization of opposing interests; such mobilization depends upon both (1) conditions of ritual solidarity within a conflict group and (2) material resources for organizing. Each round of overt conflict sets the stage for the next round, both materially and by swaying the balance of perceived responsibility for past atrocities. Any particular conflict eventually deescalates, either because material resources for mobilization are used up or by the ritual disassembling of conflict groups. Mild conflicts continue longer than intense conflicts. Deescalation of mild conflicts typically occurs through bureaucratic institutionalization of concessions to interest groups; bureaucratic niches in turn become resource bases for future conflicts. These principles are applied to analyze the patterns of conflict in the United States in the late twentieth century and to predict future patterns of conflict.