The Possibilities and Usefulness of Defining Optimum Population Levels

Abstract

The problem of “optimum population” involves maximizing a certain function of population level, distribution, and rate of growth. This paper describes a methodology developed to tackle this problem, as well as a demographic-economic model suitable for simulation purposes, developed specifically for the United States and for a time frame of several decades. This model calculates a “per capita welfare index” as a function of various demographic and economic parameters, making allowances for quantities not normally counted in the gross national product, such as household production and the value of leisure time; but disallowing the costs which arise from resource scarcities, urban disamenities, and the need for increased pollution control. In its simplest application, the model can be used to answer the question “Have we become better off or worse off as our economy and population have grown?” Aside from this historical investigation, it is of course possible to do simulation analyses and to evaluate the probable effects of specific policies on the future welfare of the population.