The development of a recidivism risk index for use with young offenders is
described. A construction sample was drawn from the first 458 incarcerated
youths in South Australia approached to undertake a routine standardised
psychosocial screening. Items that met the selection criteria for the risk index
were number of prior proven offences, current age, age at first offence, alcohol
and inhalant use frequencies, and ADHD signs. The resulting index had
significant correlations (.28–.53) with 6-month postrelease
recidivism status among various assessment, age, gender and ethnic subgroups. A
correlation of .36 was obtained between the index and 6-month postrelease
recidivism status with an independent sample of 149 incarcerated youths. The
results compare well with the predictive validities reported elsewhere for other
risk instruments. An important use for the index could be to guide more
intensive services toward those who are at highest risk of reoffending.
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