‘Reading Tea Leaves’: An Assessment of the Reliability of Police Recorded Crime Statistics

Abstract

Performance Management (PM) was introduced to the UK incrementally from the late 1980s onwards, with both Conservative and New Labour governments using the system to control the professionals charged with the delivery of public services. Performance frameworks were developed enabling comparisons to be made between similar public organisations delivering similar services. The Police Service was no exception and by the late 1990s a range of performance indicators had been introduced allowing comparisons between similar forces and command units. In addition to such a control mechanism, police forces were required to adopt the National Intelligence Model (NIM), an analytical and intelligence-led approach to controlling crime based on the principles of strategic management in tune with New Labour's philosophy on knowledge-based practice. Both these technologies rely on accurate crime data for comparative purposes. The adoption of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002, with its emphasis on a ‘victim-focused’ approach to crime recording, was heralded as a means of ensuring a ‘level playing field’ across all police forces. This article highlights a fundamental flaw in the NCRS and demonstrates how police forces have been able to exploit this and, in so doing, create the illusion that they are effectively reducing crime.