Global satellite data is analyzed for temperature trends for the period January 1979 through June 2009. Beginning and ending segments show a cooling trend, while the middle segment evinces a warming trend. The past 12 to 13 years show cooling using both satellite data sets, with lower confidence limits that do not exclude a negative trend until 16 years. It is shown that several published studies have predicted cooling in this time frame. One of these models is extrapolated from its 2000 calibration end date and shows a good match to the satellite data, with a projection of continued cooling for several more decades.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BartlettM.S.1935. Some aspects of the time-correlation problem in regard to tests of significance. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society98:536–543.
2.
BiondiF.GershunovA., and CayanD.R.2001. North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. Journal of Climate14:5–10.
3.
BratcherA.J. and GieseB.S.2002. Tropical Pacific decadal variability and global warming. Geophysical Research Letters29:19, 1918, doi:10.1029/2002GL015191.
4.
CaseyK.S. and CornillonP.2001. Global and regional sea surface temperature trends. Journal of Climate14:3801–3818.
5.
ChristyJ.R.NorrisW.B.SpencerR.W., and HniloJ.J.. 2007. Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research112, D06102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006881.
6.
ChylekP.FollandC.K.LesinsG.DubeyM.K., and WangM.2009. Arctic air temperature change amplification and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters36, L14801. doi:10.1029/2009GL038777.
7.
CohnT.A. and LinsH.F.2005. Nature's style: Naturally trendy. Geophysical Research Letters32, L23402, doi:10.1029/2005GL024476.
8.
de JagerC. and DuhauS.2009. Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics71:239–245.
9.
EasterlingD.R. and WehnerM.F.2009. Is the climate warming or cooling?Geophysical Research Letters36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810.
10.
FollandC.K.KarlT.R., and SalingerM.J.2002. Observed climate variability and change. Weather57:269–278.
11.
FuQ.JohansonC.M.WarrenS.G., and SeidelD.J.2004. Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature429:55–58.
12.
HansenJ.SatoM.RuedyR.LoK.LeaD.W., and Medina-ElizadeM.2006. Global temperature change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences103:14288–14293.
13.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SolomanSQinD.ManningM.ChenZ.MarquisM.AveryK.B.TignorM., and MillerH.L. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, New York USA. 996 pp.
14.
JonesP.D. and MobergA.2003. Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. Journal of Climate16:206–223.
15.
KeenlysideN.S.LatifM.JungclausJ.KornbluehL., and RoecknerE.2008. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature453:84–88. doi:10.1038/nature06921.
16.
KlyashtorinL.B.BorisovV., and LyubushinA.2009. Cyclic changes of climate and major commercial stocks of the Barents Sea. Marine Biology Research5:4–17.
17.
KlyashtorinL.B. and LyubushinA.A.2003. On the coherence between dynamics of the world fuel consumption and global temperature anomaly. Energy & Environment14:773–782.
18.
LandscheidtT.2003. New Little Ice Age instead of global warming?Energy and Environment14:327–350.
19.
LoehleC.2004. Climate change: Detection and attribution of trends from long term geologic data. Ecological Modelling171:433–450.
20.
LoehleC.2009. Cooling of the global ocean since 2003. Energy & Environment20:99–102.
21.
LucariniV. and RussellG.L.2002. Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs. Journal of Geophysical Research107(D15): ACL 7–1, 4269, doi:10.1029/2001JD001247.
22.
QuenouilleM.H.1952. Associated Measurements. Butterworth Scientific Publications, London. 242 pp.
23.
SanterB.D.ThorneP.W.HaimbergerL.TaylorK.E.WigleyT.M.L.LanzanteJ.R.SolomonS.FreeM.GlecklerP.J.JonesP.D.KarlT.R.KleinS.A.MearsC.NychkaD.SchmidtG.A.SherwoodS.C., and WentzF.J.2008. Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. International Journal of Climatology28:1703–1722.
24.
SchlesingerM.E. and RamankuttyN.1994. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature367(6465):723–726.
25.
SoonW.W.-H.2005. Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years. Geophysical Research Letters32, L16712, doi:10.1029/2005GL023429.
26.
SoonW.W.-H.LegatesD.R., and BaliunasS.L.2004. Estimation and representation of long-term (>40 year) trends of Northern-Hemisphere-gridded surface temperature: A note of caution. Geophysical Research Letters31, L03209, doi:10.1029/2003GL019141.
27.
SwansonK.L. and TsonisA.A.2009. Has the climate recently shifted?Geophysical Research Letters36, L06711, doi:10.1029/2008GL037022.
28.
ThompsonD.W.J. and SolomonS.Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science296:895–899.
29.
TsonisA.A.SwansonK., and KravtsovS.2007. A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts. Geophysical Research Letters34, L13705, doi:10.1029/2007GL030288.
30.
VoseR.S.EasterlingD.R., and GleasonB.2005. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004. Geophysical Research Letters32, L23822, doi:10.1029/2005GL024379.
31.
WangG.SwansonK.L., and TsonisA.A.2009. The pacemaker of major climate shifts. Geophysical Research Letters36, L07708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036874.
32.
WoodR.2008. Natural ups and downs. Nature453:43–45.
33.
YousefS.M.2006. 80–120 yr Long-term solar induced effects on the earth, past and predictions. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth31:113–122; doi:10.1016/j.poe.2005.04.004.
34.
Zhen-ShanL. and XianS.2007. Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics95:115–121.
