Market Diffusion of New Renewable Energy in Europe: Explaining Front-Runner and Laggard Positions

Abstract

In 1997, the European Union adopted the ambitious target of doubling the share of renewables in total primary energy consumption by 2010. However, by 2003 the EU was still recording low achievement levels, due largely to variation in the generosity and stability of member-state policies to support the diffusion of renewable energy. This article surveys national variation in the diffusion of renewable energy, linking this variation to the degree of ambition in governmental policies. After discussing what drives national policies, we conclude that policy ambitiousness reflects the degree to which salient national energy-related problems converge around renewable energy diffusion as a joint solution. Countries with ambitious renewable energy policies are found to have many unsolved national energy-related problems and an abundant primary renewable energy resource base that could be developed for solving these problems. Countries with less ambitious policies, on the other hand, have fewer salient national energy-related problems or a less abundant renewable energy resource base. Among energy-related problems, the lack of national energy security in combination with policy ambitions to assist new industrial activities emerges as a particularly forceful policy driver. A side-effect of the convergence of many national problems around renewable energy diffusion as solution is that strong advocacy coalitions can more readily be forged to lobby for generous and stable governmental renewable energy policies. Local-level factors will, however, condition the effect of central government policies. Countries that have ensured co-decision power for local communities and benefit-sharing rights in renewable energy development are more likely to see their ambitious national policies result in diffusion, in contrast to countries with policies that ignore demands at the local level. The UK and Spain, representing low- and high-diffusion countries, respectively, are here discussed as major cases, supported by evidence from other EU member countries.