The Current Outlook for the Nuclear Power Industry in the United States

Abstract

Serious concerns about national energy security and the need to begin preparing for a post-petroleum world are opening a window of opportunity for a potential “nuclear renaissance” in the United States. Whether such a renaissance takes root will depend on a number of countervailing tensions. This paper briefly reviews the history of the U.S. nuclear power industry and then discusses the cross-cutting forces that will determine the future course of the industry. At the moment, the single largest impediment is the failure to resolve the long term high level waste disposal issue. Other significant impediments include local NIMBYism, fear of nuclear terrorism, and financial community skepticism. Weighing on the opposite side of the scale are several favourable factors including improved operating and safety records, consolidation of plant ownership in more expert hands, extensive authorisation of license extensions for existing plants, and streamlining of licensing procedures for new plants. Most importantly, the recently enacted Energy Policy Act of 2005 creates significant economic incentives for new construction. As a result, a number of consortia are moving towards adding new units at existing generation sites. Whether these incremental additions eventually lead to a “nuclear renaissance” will depend on how economically they are constructed as well as other factors that will become clear only as the future unfolds.