Are Global per Capita CO 2 Emissions Likely to Remain Stable?

Abstract

Global per capita CO₂ emissions have been relatively stable during the last three decades. It has been suggested that this stability has been ignored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its scenario makers. If the global per capita emissions remain stable at the current level, most IPCC scenarios show emissions paths that are too high. This paper presents a simple analytical framework that offers a general explanation of the stability of global per capita CO₂ emissions during recent decades. Moreover, the paper argues that it is difficult to see why the stability of global per capita CO₂ emissions during the last few decades should persist and that current trends in regional per capita emissions are in close agreement with the IPCC scenarios.