Extreme Weather Trends Vs. Dangerous Climate Change: A Need for Critical Reassessment

Abstract

The ongoing debate on global warming and increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO₂ in particular) highlights the possibility of increased incidences of extreme weather events world-wide, as the earth's mean temperature is expected to rise steadily in future. Several recent technical and scientific conferences have focused on the general theme of “dangerous climate change” and on avoiding or reducing this danger. However, a careful analysis of observed data on world-wide extreme weather events does not reveal any increasing trend in these events, thus suggesting a mismatch between reality and the hypothesis of dangerous climate change. There is a definite need to critically re-examine the hypothesis of dangerous climate change in the context of observed trend (or lack of it) in the extreme weather events worldwide.