The recently adopted National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive within the European Union and the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol within the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) require a substantial further reduction of emissions. What are the chances for implementation success and what are the determining factors? The earlier central air pollution ‘laggard’ the UK is singled out for specific scrutiny, along with Germany and France. With regard to the UK, it does not seem reasonable to assume that the ‘high hopes’ in Geneva/CLRTAP and Brussels will be dashed in London. Despite a recent worrying increase in the use of coal, the UK as ‘the dirty man of Europe’ seems to be history. The prospects for German implementation are more uncertain, but it seems reasonable to assume that the Germans will do quite well, but be less impressive than in the past. France is even more of an uncertain card here, and its unimpressive NOx and VOC performance so far does not bode well. As these countries are central in both the EU and CLRTAP contexts, the implementation prospects for the new EU and CLRTAP commitments are overall quite promising, even though there are huge uncertainties to be clarified further.
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