This paper discusses the impact of greenhouse gas emission penalties on the production costs of western European industrial product and agricultural products. The relevance of technological change for the price impact of a penalty differs significantly, but for most products the price impact is still so high that a significant increase of materials imports can be expected. Model calculations show that the forecasting of price impacts for the next decades is not always straightforward. An integrated dynamic energy and materials systems engineering approach for the whole economy is discussed for proper assessment of upstream and downstream effects in the product life cycle.
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