There are indications that the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols is overestimated. This has fundamental consequences for estimates of the climate sensitivity of CO2 and thus for temperature forecasts. Current climate models reflect this uncertainty by a wide range of “projections”. Apart from cloud feedback, the largest uncertainty in these models is the effect of anthropogenic aerosols. The way current climate models implement the effect of different forcings is analyzed. This analysis is qualitative only, as there are major uncertainties in the quantity and effect of aerosol emissions and for confounding factors, such as ocean currents, which influence global heat distribution.
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