The climate history of the Earth is a history of continuous change. Through geological time the average global temperature remained always within the constraints set by the presence of abundant liquid water, while the atmospheric CO2 concentration varied strongly. Its 30% rise since the beginning of the 20th century can, at least partly, be attributed to human activities. According to the ‘general circulation models’ (GCMs) used by the IPCC the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration will lead to significant global warming. However, in these GCMs the (small) net CO2 forcing is amplified by strong positive feedbacks, particularly from water vapour and clouds. Real world observations and data of the geologic past do not support the role of CO2 as the principal climate regulator.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
NisbetE.G., The influence of life on the face of the Earth: Garnets and moving continents, In: FowlerC.M.R.EbingerC.J.HawkesworthC.J. eds. The Early Earth: Physical, Chemical and Biological Development, Geol. Soc.London, Special Publications, 2002, 199, 275–307.
2.
RibasI., The Sun and stars as the primary energy input in planetary atmosphere, Solar and Stellar Variability: Impact on Earth and Planets, Proceedings Intern. Astron. Union, IAU Symposium, 2010, 264, 3–18.
3.
SaganC.MullenG., Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperatures, Science, 1972, 177, 52–56.
4.
RyeR.KuoP.H.HollandH.D., Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations before 2.2 billion years ago, Nature, 1995, 378, 603–605.
5.
KramersJ.D., Global modelling of continent formation and destruction through geological time and implications for CO2 drawdown in the Archaean Eon, In: FowlerC.M.R.EbingerC.J.HawkesworthC.J. eds, The Early Earth: Physical, Chemical and Biological Development, Geol. Soc.London, Special Publications, 2002, 199, 259–274.
6.
O'NionsK., The Continents, In: BrownG.HawkesworthC.J.WilsonC. eds, Understanding the Earth: A new synthesis, Cambridge University Press, 1992, 145–163.
7.
BernerR.A.CaldeiraK., The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle, Geology, 1997, 25, 955–956.
8.
HollandH.D., The chemical evolution of the atmosphere and oceans, Princeton University Press, 1984.
9.
IPCC, Climate Change, Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, 2007.
10.
HoofT.B.Wagner-CremerF.KürschnerW.M.VisscherH., A role for atmospheric CO2 in pre-industrial climate forcing, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 2008, 105, 15815–15818.
SegalstadT.V., The distribution of CO2 between atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere; minimal influence from anthropogenic CO2 on the global “Greenhouse Effect”, in: EmsleyJ. ed., The Global Warming Debate, The Report of the European Science and Environment Forum, Bourne Press Lt., Bournemouth (Dorset), 1996, 41–50.
d'AleoJ.EasterbrookD., Multi-decadal tendencies in ENSO and global temperatures related to multi-decadal oscillations, Energy & Environment, 2010, 21 (5), 437–460.
16.
WilsonI.R.G., Are changes in the Earth's rotation rate externally driven and do they affect climate?The General Science Journal, 2011, December 2011, 3811.
17.
GeelvanB.ZieglerP.A., IPCC underestimates the Sun's role upon climate change, In: RörschA.ZieglerP.A. eds, Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: A critical review, Energy & Environment, 2013 (this volume).
18.
AmbroseS.H., Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and the differentiation of modern humans, Journ. Hum. Evol., 1998, 34, 623–651.
19.
WignallP.B., Large igneous provinces and mass extinctions, Earth Sci. Rev., 2001, 53, 1–33.
20.
NikishinA.M.ZieglerP.A.AbbottD.BrunetM-F.CloetingS., Permo-Triassic intraplate magmatism and rifting in Eurasia: Implications for mantle plumes and mantle dynamics, Tectonophys., 2002, 351, 1–19.
21.
KamoS.L.CzamanskeG.K.AmelinY.FedorenkoV.A.DavisD.W.Troc̸movV.R., Rapid eruption of Siberian flood-volcanic rocks and evidence for coincidence with the Permian Triassic boundary and mass extinction at 251 Ma, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 2003, 214, 75–91.
22.
TannerL.H.LucasS.G.ChapmanM.G., Assessing the record and causes of Late Triassic extinctions, Earth Sci. Rev., 2004, 65, 103–139.
23.
KellerG.AdatteT.GardenS.BartoliniA.BaipalS., Main Deccan volcanism ends near the K-T boundary. Evidence from the Krishnan Bodavari Basin, SE India, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 2008, 268, 293–311.
24.
LjungvistF.C., A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millennia, Geografiska Annaler, 2010, 92A, 339–351.
25.
EsperJ.FrankD.C.TimonenM.ZoritaE.WilsonR.J.S.LuterbacherJ.HolzkämperS.FischerN.WagnerS.NievergeltD.VerstegeA.BütgenU., Orbital forcing of tree-ring data, Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(7), 1–5.
26.
ClaussenM.KubatzkiC.BrovkinV.GanopolskiA.HoelzmannP.PachurH. J., Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation at the end of the Mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 1999, 24, 2037–2040.
27.
AlleyR.B. and Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Abrupt climate change: Inevitable surprises, National Research Council (US), Nat. Academy Press, 2002, Washington DC.
28.
McElwainJ.C.MayleE.E.BeerlingD.J., Stomatal evidence for a decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the Younger Dryas stadial: A comparison with Antarctic ice core records, Journ. Quaternary Sci., 2002, 17 (1), 21–29.
29.
McInerneyF.A.WingS.L., The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A perturbation of carbon cycle, climate and biosphere with implications for the future, Annual Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 2011, 39, 489–516.
30.
GrayJ.L.BeerJ.GellerM.HaighJ.D.LockwoodM.MatthesK.CibschU.FleitmanD.HarrisonG.HoodL.LuterbachJ.MeehlG.A.ShidellD.van GeelB.WhiteW., Solar influence on climate, Rev. Geoph., 2010, 48, RG 402, 1–53.
31.
BeerJ.VonmoosM.MuschlerR., Solar variability over the past several millennia, Space Science Rev., 2006, 125, 67–79.
32.
van GeelB.RaspopovO.M.RenssenH.van der PlichtJ.DergachevV.A.MeijerH.A.J., The role of solar forcing upon climate change, Quaternary Science Rev., 1999, 18, 331–338.
33.
van GeelB.RenssenH.van der PlichtJ., Evidence from the past: Solar forcing by way of cosmic rays and/or by solar UV?, Proceedings Workshop on Ion-Aerosol- Cloud Interaction, CERN, April 2001.
34.
JagerdeC., Solar forcing of climate, Surveys in Geophysics, 2012, 33, 445–451.
35.
de JagerC.DuhauC.van GeelB., Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature, Journ. Amosph. and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2010, 72 (13), 926–937.
36.
ScafettaN., Solar/planetary oscillation control on climate change: Hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs, ín: RörschA.ZieglerP.A. eds, Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: A critical review, Energy & Environment, 2013 (this volume).
37.
BeerJ.MendelW.StellmacherG., The role of the Sun in climate forcing, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 2000, 19, 403–415.
38.
SvensmarkH.Friiss-ChristensenE., Variation in Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage – a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships, Journ. Atmosph. and Solar-Terrestrial Phys., 1997, 59, 1225–1232.
39.
SvensmarkH., Influence of cosmic rays on Earth's climate, Physical Rev. Letters, 1998, 81, 5027–5030.
40.
SvensmarkH., Cosmology, an new theory emerges, Astronomy & Geology, 2007, 48, 1.18–1.24.
BeerJ.BlinovA.BonaniG., Use of 10Be in polar ice to trace the 11-year cycle of solar activity, Nature, 1990, 347, 164–166.
43.
SvensmarkH., Cosmic rays and Earth's Climate, Space Science Rev., 2000, 93, 155–166.
44.
SvensmarkH.PedersenJ.O.MarshN.D.EnghoffM.B.UggerhøjU.J., Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proc. Royal Soc., 2007, A 463, 386–396.
45.
EnghoffM.B.Pepke PedersonJ.O.BondoT.JohnsonM.S.PalingS.SvensmarkH., Evidence for the role of ions in aerosol nucleation, Journ. Physical Chemistry, 2008, A 112, 10305–10309.
46.
EnghoffM.B.Pepke PedersonJ.O.UggerhøjU.J.PalingS.M.SvensmarkH., Aerosol nucleation induced by a high-energy particle beam, Geophys. Res. Letters, 2011, 38, LO9805.
47.
KirkbyJ.Cern/CloudProject-Group, Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation, Nature, 2011, 476, 429–43.
48.
ShavivN.J., The spiral structure of the Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on Earth, New Astronomy, 2002, 8, 39–77.
GiesD.R.HelselJ.W., Ice Age Epochs and the Sun's path through the Galaxy, Astroph. Journ., 2005, 626, 844–848.
51.
MillerK.G.WrightJ.D.KatzM.E.WadeB.BrowningJ.V.CramerB.S.RosenthalY., Climate threshold at the Eocene-Oligocene transition: Antarctic ice sheet influence on ocean circulation, In: KoeberlC.MontanariA. (eds), The late Eocene Earth – hothouse, icehouse, and impacts, Geol. Soc. America, Special Paper, 2009, 452, 169–178.
52.
WolfT.C.W.ThiedeJ., History of terrigenous sedimentation during the past 10 m.y. in the North Atlantic (ODP Legs 104 and 105 and DSDP Leg 81), Marine Geol., 1991, 101, 83–102.
WilsonI.R.G.CarterB.D.WaiteI.A., Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling between the Sun and the Jovian Planets govern the Solar Cycle?, Publ. Astron. Soc. Australia, 2008, 25, 85–93.
55.
WilsonI.R.G., Do Periodic Peaks in the Planetary Tidal Forces acting on the Sun influence the Sunspot Cycle?, The General Science Journ., Dec. 2011, 3812.
56.
LindzenR.S.ChoiY.S., On the Observational Determination of Climate Sensitivity and it is implications, Asia-Pacific Journ. Atmospheric. Sci., 2011, 47 (4), 377–390.
57.
BiceK. L.BirgelD.MeyersP. A.DahlK. A.HinrichsK.NorrisR. D., A multiple proxy and model study of Cretaceous upper ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Paleoceanography, 2006, 21, 1–17, PA2002, doi:10.1029/2005PA001203.
KuoC.LindbergC.ThomsonD., Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature, Nature, 1990, 343, 709–714.
64.
ClarkR., A coupled thermal reservoir description of surface temperature and climate change, In: RörschA.ZieglerP.A. eds, Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: A critical review, Energy & Environment, 2013 (this volume).
65.
MassonH., Advanced signature analysis of time series application to climate change, In: RörschA.ZieglerP.A. eds, Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: A critical review, Energy & Environment, 2013 (this volume).
66.
VeizerJ.GodderisY.FrançoisL.H., Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon, Nature, 2000, 408, 698–701, online updated 2004, j.veizer/isotope_data/index.html.
67.
BernerR.A.KothavalaZ., A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic Time, Amer. Journ. Sci., 2001, 301, 182–20.
